U.S. Policies Put Domestic Auto Industry at Risk
May 2026
U.S. anti-EV policies are widening the competitiveness gap between U.S. automakers and global rivals as EV adoption accelerates in China and Europe while stagnating at home. Reduced incentives and shifting investment priorities have pushed major OEMs back toward profitable ICE vehicles, risking long-term irrelevance on global markets. Sustained investment in the EV ecosystem and global benchmarking remain essential for U.S. automakers to stay competitive, despite short-term market distortions at home and political uncertainty surrounding clean mobility policies.
Who Will Most Benefit from the Accelerating AV Market?
April 2026
Autonomous vehicle deployment is accelerating worldwide, driven by collaborations among OEMs, ADS providers, and ride-hailing platforms. Waymo leads in the U.S., Baidu, Pony.ai. WeRide dominate China. Europe is emerging as the next major battleground with upcoming robotaxi services in Croatia and the UK. OEMs are adapting vehicles for AV-specific needs, but ride-hailing platforms like Uber hold the strongest position, leveraging scale and partnerships to become key orchestrators of the AV ecosystem.
It is Time to Wean Transportation Off Oil Dependency
March 2026
Oil is currently used as a geopolitical weapon, exposing the extent to which the global economy depends on it. The ongoing conflict in Iran is sending oil prices sharply higher and driving up fuel and transportation costs. Because transportation consumes over 60% of global oil products, reducing dependence is critical. Electrifying vehicle fleets is the only viable path. However, it requires sustained political commitment and new supply chains. If the crisis last, consumer will naturally gain interest in electrified vehicle as they did in small cars in 1973. However, our dependence may merely shift in the midterm from oil producers to China which dominates critical supply chains.
SDV: Unlocking Opportunities, But Not Without Challenges
February 2026
The software-defined vehicle (SDV) transforms cars from hardware-centric machines into continuously updatable, software-driven platforms. By shifting from distributed ECUs to centralized high-performance computing, OEMs enable over-the-air updates, new revenue models, and lifecycle improvements. However, SDV demands major architectural, organizational, and supply-chain transformations. While digital-native players advance quickly, incumbents face technical, cultural, and monetization challenges amid gradual industry adoption.
CES 2026 – Autotech and Mobility Highlights
January 2026
The main theme CES 2026 was without a doubt AI. Compared with 2024 and 2025, AI-related messages have evolved to the industrialization of mature applications. On the mobility side, themes entailed autonomous driving, advanced chips and general compute, embedded AI, maturing Software-Defined Vehicle (SDV) and emerging AI-Defined Vehicle, and cockpit tech.
Privately-owned Autonomous Vehicles are Coming
November 2025
Autonomous vehicles are no longer a thing of the future. Robotaxis operate commercially in over a dozen cities globally, delivering well over 500,000 paid raids per week and scaling fast. OEMs play a key role, providing vehicles with an increasing level of integration. Some are planning personally owned AVs, which could even be shared. I also analyze the unique value proposition of Tensor, a Silicon Valley-based AD tech developer and soon provider of privately owned AVs.
Multi-Faceted Challenges Threaten the Auto Industry
October 2025
We often talk about the technology factors that drive the deep transformation of the automotive industry, e.g.,electrification, ADAS and autonomous driving, software and AI. However, the industry is increasingly under pressure for other, non-technical factors. These include the risk of global economic decoupling, more differentiated national policies, and more regionalized customer expectations. Some of these non-technical factors have a significant impact on stakeholders’ profitability, which hampers their ability to address the technical factors. The challenge for them is significant at a time when Chinese players are upping their games globally, relying on highly competitive technologies. What can they do?
Robotaxis Get a Boost from Ride-Hailing Platforms
September 2025
Robotaxi adoption is accelerating in both the U.S. and China, with companies like Waymo and Baidu’s Apollo Go rapidly expanding commercial operations and fleet sizes. Ride-hailing platforms Uber and Lyft are now integrating robotaxis as these vehicles gain market share and operational efficiency and promise to unlock growth potential. These partnerships also give autonomous driving tech companies an opportunity to scale faster and focus on what they do best. Although profitability and regulation pose some challenges, deployment to new geographies is expected to accelerate, including in Europe which prepares to deploy robotaxis as well.
100th Edition: Looking back at a Decade of Transformation
July 2025
As I mark the milestone of my 100th article, it is both a celebration and a moment of reflection on the extraordinary transformation that has swept through the mobility space since I started Mobility Revolution, my monthly newsletter, in Sept. 2016. Since then, the sector has been profoundly upended by powerful technological, economic, and societal forces. In my previous 99 articles, I have shared my analysis of these various components and their impact on mobility at large. This 100th edition revisits the major themes explored in previous ones, analyzing the industry’s transformation since 2016.
Should the EU Relax the 2035 Zero Emission Mandate?
June 2025
The EU’s 2035 zero-emission vehicle mandate faces mounting debate. Some advocate relaxing it due to slower-than-expected BEV adoption, infrastructure gaps, supply chain dependency on China, and industry stress. Others argue maintaining it is essential to remain competitive with China’s accelerating EV push and to meet climate goals. A 2026 review could reassess targets, though many call for an earlier evaluation. The core question: stay the course to drive transformation or ease the mandate to protect industry stability and profitability in the near term?
The Case for Simplicity: The Need for Basic Cars
May 2025
Car prices have surged, pricing many Americans — and to a lesser extent Europeans — out of the market. U.S. tariffs will not only raise prices but also block low-cost imports as domestic automakers tend to focus on high-margin models. Startups like Slate and Also offer hope with innovative, low-cost EVs. To stay competitive and accessible, U.S. OEMs must offer more affordable products, continue to innovate, and remain competitive in global markets despite steep tariffs that protect their home market.
Rethinking the Auto Industry: Tech, Tariffs, and China
April 2025
The automotive industry faces unprecedented disruption from technology shifts, geopolitical tensions, and rising Chinese competition. Western OEMs are under pressure as the path the electrification is uncertain, new players prove more efficient, and supply chains regionalize, whereas profitability erodes. To survive, they must embrace partnerships, flexible operating models, and AI-driven efficiency. The stakes are high, not just for companies, but for entire economies tied to the auto sector’s future. What can stakeholders do?
Chinese Auto Takeover: Tech, Growth, and Global
March 2025
In the few years, Chinese automakers have rapidly gained global standing, transforming both traditional and electric vehicle markets. Companies like BYD, Geely, and SAIC are expanding their presence beyond China, with BYD emerging as the world’s leading electric vehicle manufacturer. Supported by a robust government backing, they are not only reshaping the domestic market but also making significant strides in Europe, Southeast Asia, and beyond. With excess production capacity, they are focusing on exports and strategic partnerships with Western manufacturers, positioning themselves as formidable contenders to established global automotive giants, leveraging a world leading battery supply chain and strong technical capabilities.
The AI-Driven Future of the Auto Industry
February 2025
AI is revolutionizing the vehicle lifecycle, optimizing design, engineering, manufacturing, and compliance. It enhances efficiency in supply chains, predictive maintenance, and quality control while improving customer experiences with AI assistants and safety features. AI also streamlines sales, service, and business processes. While boosting productivity, the widespread adoption of AI raises concerns about job losses, emphasizing the need for workforce upskilling to adapt.
CES 2025 – Autotech and Mobility Highlights
January 2025
CES 2025 was somewhat subdued compared to previous editions. Nevertheless, there were still several worthy announcements and tech introductions whether from OEMs, Tier 1 suppliers or startups. Whereas IA has become widely pervasive throughout the show, SDV is gaining visibility with building blocks for future vehicles, and electrification is taking a (temporary) step backwards.
Robotaxis Accelerate, Ride-Hailing Leaders React
November 2024
The deployment of robotaxis is building momentum in the USA and China. Waymo is now delivering 150k paid, rider-only rides per week across three US cities. Investments continue to flow into the major AV players to spur further growth. As a result, ride-hailing players Uber and Lyft have felt the need to hop back into the AV space. They recently signed multiple partnerships with AD tech providers to bring robotaxis to their platforms and benefit from projected cost savings.
Paris Auto Show – EV Focus and Chinese Push
October 2024
European OEMs were back at the Paris Mondial de l’Auto this year after a disappointing 2022 edition. They exhibited a wave of new products with the best-in-show award going to Renault. However, Chinese OEMs also had a strong presence with six players presenting a broad range of mostly larger vehicles, mainly EVs and PHEVs. While OEMs forge ahead with new products, the industry is under intense pressure warned the CEOs of several major players.
Shift to Electric Mobility Gets Pushed Out
September 2024
EV sales growth remains an issue in Europe and the USA. OEMs are postponing product launches, adding more hybrids in their mix, and delaying cell production capacity upgrades. Promises to go full electric are being toned down. And of all this significantly impacts the supply chain. What can be done to restore the much-needed EV sales growth?
Darwinian Evolution of the AD/ADAS Tech Ecosystem
July 2024
Tens of billions of dollars have been invested in the development of autonomous driving and ADAS technology over the past decade and a half. Whereas several companies are forging ahead with commercial deployments, some have pivoted to less demanding use cases. Other entities have collapsed while a few have even raised very large rounds recently, some reaching $1B. This Darwinian evolution has accelerated over the past two years.
EV Batteries – A Global Fight for Regional Sovereignty
June 2024
There is no doubt now the future of mobility is electric. Therefore, the global battery supply chain must be massively developed. Yet, China dominates this industry, from mining to refining and manufacturing. The on-shoring of cell production and the development of independent supply chains represent strategic imperatives for Europe and the USA to secure their economic sovereignty as trade tensions show no sign of easing.
A Month With Tesla FSD (supervised) v12.3
May 2024
Introduced in 2019, Tesla’s FSD is a vision-based Level 2+ ADAS solution currently selling for $8k or $99 per month in the USA. I extensively tested the deeply revamped v12.3 which Tesla recently offered for free for one month. The solution is much better than the v10 I tested a couple of years ago, offering amongst other things a smoother, safer ride. Yet, safety-related flaws remain that result in a significant gap vs. what is needed to launch a fleet of the robotaxis Tesla will unveil in August.
China's Global EV Ambitions — The West Must Act
April 2024
China has become the largest automotive exporter, with 4.1 million passenger vehicles shipped in 2023, of which 1.2 million plug-ins. Foreign brands represent a significant share of this volume today. However, Chinese OEMs ambition to gain large market shares abroad, thanks in part to new brands and new products that prove very competitive, not just in terms of price but also technology. And this ambition is already visible.
A Critical Need for Lighter, Smaller Vehicles
March 2024
Does a 4.1-ton, 2.38-m wide (with mirrors) Hummer EV SUV with its 210-kWh, 1.3-ton battery pack make sense just to drive people around? How about a 3.1-ton, 5.88-meter long Tesla Cybertruck. Wider, taller, longer and heavier vehicles have been the trend for many years in Europe and the USA. These larger vehicles with taller front ends, occupy more of our shared space, use more of our natural resources, generate more CO2, cause more fatalities and are often no longer affordable. Where do we stand and what can be done to reverse this trend?
Is EV Growth Really Stalling? What to Expect Next
February 2024
Global battery EV sales grew about 30% in 2023 vs. +65% in 2022. Growth dropped further in the last months of 2023 and was even negative in some markets. 2024 will likely be a consolidation year before significant growth picks up again in 2025. Several factors explain this situation, including product affordability, changes in incentive schemes, and an overall ecosystem that lacks the necessary maturity to win over the general public, e.g., charging infrastructure, distribution network.
CES 2024 – Autotech and Mobility Highlights
January 2024
Visited by 135,000 people, CES 2024 was another strong edition for autotech and mobility though many OEMs skipped the leading tech show. This year, the focus was placed on software-defined vehicles and components, AI and the emergence of GenAI, as well as displays, lighting and UX. Autonomous driving made way for ADAS and charging was the prominent domain within the EV space.
Looking Back at 2023 in Mobility and Autotech
December 2023
2023 was definitely an eventful year in mobility. Much happened in particular in the EV and autonomous driving spaces. Let’s look at the most significant events, both good and bad that occurred throughout the year. This industry is definitely undergoing a massive transformation.
Public-Private Collaboration Towards Sustainable Inclusive Mobility
November 2023
Sustainable, inclusive mobility options ought to become ubiquitous. Delivering this achievement will require private and public stakeholders to come together, the former contributing technology, expertise and new business models, the latter facilitating and regulating access to the market. In addition, academia can bring its research-driven recommendation to this necessary partnership.
EVs and The Grid - Leveraging Batteries on Wheels
October 2023
Electric vehicles are “batteries on wheels” that can act as virtual power plants, generating electricity to support the grid, power homes or a craftsman’s tools, as well as reduce CO2 generated by the electricity we consume. The ongoing upsurge of EVs results in tremendous opportunities to create new use cases and revenue streams.
The Burgeoning Business of On-Demand Connected Services
September 2023
The emergence of the software-defined vehicle combined with ubiquitous connectivity enable the growth of new software-based services and on-demand features. OEMs expect this business to generate tens of billions in recurring revenue at a high gross margin. Yet, several key issues must be addressed.
Robotaxis: Balancing Tech, Regulations and Public Acceptance
July 2023
The development and deployment of robotaxis has experienced a bumpy ride and absorbed tens of billions of dollars to date. Yet, they exist in limited-scale commercial services distributed across seven cities located in the USA and China. Robotaxis’ further deployment will be the result of a somewhat chaotic combination of technology, regulations, and public acceptance.
Tesla Won the Charging Battle in N. America
June 2023
Tesla’s charging infrastructure and connector design are class-leading in the auto industry. So much so that Ford and GM have decided to partner with their fast-growing EV competitor to offer customers the best charging experience possible and accelerate their EV growth in N. America. As a result, Tesla’s “NACS” connector is the de-facto standard in the region.
Some Classic Cars Go Electric
May 2023
All mobility modes must become clean. However, this could be mean the death of classic cars which many of us love. Converting them to battery EVs has become a real opportunity and a business over the past few years. Services range from selling kits for as low as about $5,000 to offering a conversion combined with a full-on restoration for hundreds of thousands of dollars.
How Tesla Reaches Class Leading Financial Performance
April 2023
Tesla’s market cap came down about 50% from its $1.2T peak, yet it remains 4 times that of the next most valuable OEM, i.e., Toyota. In 2022, Tesla’s gross margin stood at 28.5% and net income at 17.6%, resulting in $11.2k of cashflows per vehicle sold. Yet, these class-leading financial metrics were generated with “only” 1.3 million units delivered. In this article, I analyze operational differences to explain Tesla’s financial performance vs. Toyota, GM, VW Group, Stellantis and Mercedes.
Carmakers’ Reshuffled Priorities: An In-depth Analysis
March 2023
The automotive industry is undergoing the most profound transformation it has ever experienced. For incumbent OEMs, this means reshuffling priorities across most activities. Electrification and software are now front and center. The revamping of supply chains and distribution is right behind. And the allocation of resources between assisted and autonomous driving is being revised. What is really happening?
Are Frugal Minicars the Future of Urban Mobility?
February 2023
The transformation of urban mobility provides an opportunity to introduce vehicles that address multiple phenomena, namely traffic density, short trips, low vehicle occupancy, as well as a shift towards ridership and the need for sustainable mobility. Frugal, electric minicars may prove to be the ideal contenders.
CES 2023 - Mobility Trends and Announcements
January 2023
The 2023 edition of CES delivered its annual share of announcements and introductions of new technologies, products, and solutions in automotive, auto tech, and mobility at large. Various trends reflected the fast-transforming industry. CES 2023 also proved to strike the right balance between exhibitors and attendees, enabling significant networking.
Geely: Creation of a Global Automotive Empire
December 2022
China-based, Geely has become a global automotive empire. It went from selling its first cars in 1997 to reaching 2.2 million vehicles across many brands including Volvo, Lotus, Lynk & Co and Polestar. Geely has also acquired stakes in Mercedes-Benz, AB Volvo or Aston Martin, set up JVs with Renault and others, and is now extracting multiple synergies between entities. How far will founder and CEO Li Shufu take Geely?
Autonomous Driving Consolidation Intensifies
November 2022
Autonomous driving has proven tougher than expected which pushes scaling out. Despite massive amounts of funds raised in the past two years, some players won’t have enough runway to last until cashflows turn positive. This leads to accelerated consolidation and collapse across the space including that of Argo, a major player.
2022 Paris Auto Show - Highlights & Trends
October 2022
The Paris auto show “Le Mondial de l’Auto” was back last week, though it differed a lot from previous editions. German, Japanese, Korean and American (besides Jeep) OEMs were absent, leaving the floor to French brand, Chinese EV makers and Vietnam’s VinFast. However, two domains were well represented: frugal clean mobility with mini EVs as well as hydrogen fuel cell propulsion systems and FCEV startups.
The Profound Transformation of Battery & Motor Supply Chains
September 2022
The rapid and sustained deployment of battery EVs brings about a profound transformation of the auto industry which goes way beyond the product itself. OEMs revamp their supply chains in depth, focusing on batteries and motors, and secure long-term contracts from the mine all the way to end end-of-life recycling. Their technology and sourcing choices must not only be sustainable and resilient but also abide by increasingly stringent regulatory frameworks.
The Future of Commercial Vehicles
July 2022
Commercial vehicles, from light vans to heavy trucks, are experiencing trends seen across mobility, in particular electrification and autonomous driving. However, the deployment of these technologies reflects a unique set of criteria that differ from that applied to passenger vehicles.
Tesla Wannabes’ State of Health in Booming EV Market
June 2022
Battery EVs’ share of the global light vehicle market grew from 3% in 2020 to 6% in 2021. If 1 out 5 BEVs was a Tesla last year, other emerging players are gaining traction. Together, they are challenging incumbents OEMs which are for the most part investing all they can to pivot away from internal combustion powertrains. How are these emerging BEV players fairing?
Are AVs for People and Freight Close to Scaling?
May 2022
For decades, people have dreamt of letting go of the steering wheel when driving conditions are boring. Five years ago, Robotaxis were announced for the end of the 2010s as an alternative to car ownership, but this did not really materialize. Tens of billions of dollars later, a few pilots exist not only with robotaxis but also autonomous trucks, last- and middle-mile logistics and more. Where do we stand today and what should we expect in the coming years.
Bespoke Vehicles Emerge for Robotaxi Service
April 2022
Autonomous ride-hailing service is now deployed at small scale in 3 cities across the world. Scaling to more markets will take time. However, the industry is developing bespoke, fit-for-purpose vehicles, a.k.a. robotaxis, to serve this promising market. These vehicles will operate from any point A to any point B, while offering a completely new rider experience. A few such robotaxis have already been unveiled.
Auto Majors Separate New and Legacy Businesses
March 2022
Battery EV sales doubled in 2021 to reach about 4.5M units. The industry focus has now shifted from “BEV vs. ICE” to “how to boost BEV efficiency.” Various parameters are available including motor types, power electronics, aerodynamics, voltage, thermal management, tires and more. What are the options and what choices is the industry making?
Next Frontier for Battery EVs: A Race to Efficiency
February 2022
Battery EV sales doubled in 2021 to reach about 4.5M units. The industry focus has now shifted from “BEV vs. ICE” to “how to boost BEV efficiency.” Various parameters are available including motor types, power electronics, aerodynamics, voltage, thermal management, tires and more. What are the options and what choices is the industry making?
CES 2022 – Mobility Trends and Key Announcements
January 2022
CES 2022 delivered a fair amount of mobility-related announcements related to products, services and partnerships, despite a significantly lower attendance and many cancellations. The main areas of focus were electrification, autonomous driving and robotics. New EV players continue to display their ambition and partnerships between incumbents as tech majors multiply, addressing software development, chips, cloud services as well as ADAS and autonomous driving.
Retrospective and Predictions for Mobility
December 2021
In 2021, the auto industry and mobility at large underwent a significant transformation across the board. In 2022, I expect we will maintain a high pace of change in technology and its deployment, in particular re. electrification and autonomous driving. We will also experience an acceleration in new partnerships across the ecosystems and beyond, as well as up and down the supply chain. This article provides a retrospective as well as a set of predictions for 2022.
Tesla’s Trillion Dollar Valuation – A Financial & Operational Analysis
November 2021
What can explain Tesla’s trillion-dollar market cap? The EV leader not only has a recurring ~50% annual growth rate, its revenue per unit, gross and operating margins, as well as net income and operating cash flows per unit are already higher than or on par with those of VW Group, Toyota, GM or Daimler despite selling a much lower volume. We compare the numbers and analyze what is behind them.
E-Cargo Bikes Overtake Urban Delivery
October 2021
E-cargo bikes and trikes are gaining significant momentum for last mile deliveries in urban environments. This results from bursting e-commerce over the past 18 months, increasingly constrained access to city centers and noticeable operational efficiency gains. A variety of creative form factors with payloads up to 350 kg have emerged to address this market.
Maximizing Lifetime Customer Value with New Business Models
September 2021
Automotive OEMs have the opportunity to complement the revenue generated upon delivery with lifetime revenue streams thanks to connectivity, OTA updates, new E/E architectures and new business models. The anticipated long-term shift from vehicle ownership to usership combined with the pressure from tech giants and emerging OEMs make such a transformation mandatory.
The Automotive Industry Now Committing to an All Electric Future
July 2021
Last year was pivotal for the greening of mobility. EV adoption jumped in Europe and we now see a similar acceleration in China and the US. The tightening of emission standards and the rising demand for EVs have pushed several OEMs to go all in. Many have announced a shift to fully electric product line-ups, often between 2030 and 2035. Some OEMs still resist though.
Advanced Air Mobility Prepares to Take Off
June 2021
Advanced air mobility will leverage many of the trends observed with ground mobility, in particular electrification, shared assets, and eventually pilot-less operations. Massive funding enables a number of companies, mostly in the US and Europe, to develop aircrafts with various form factors, propulsion systems, ranges and ground infrastructures, either for urban or regional use cases. The most advance players are shooting for 2024 to introduce their service.
Hydrogen’s Future Role in Mobility
May 2021
Greening mobility will essentially rely on plug-in hybrid and increasingly battery electric vehicles in the near term. Nevertheless, hydrogen and fuel cells will become part of the solution because of their unique benefits. Upfront and operating costs, integration constraints, specific energy and the fueling/charging infrastructure will define which applications will most benefit from hydrogen-based on-board power generation.
Concentration, Funding and Vertical Integration in the AV Space
April 2021
Significant fund raising rounds at increasing valuations are singling out a few autonomous driving system developers. This results in faster tech development, more pilots and a few acquisitions to increase control over their products. These select companies are also aggregating an increasing number of light vehicle and heavy truck OEMs, around them — these focus on EVs and software development.
Contract Manufacturing: Asset-Light Approach to the Auto Market
March 2021
Contract vehicle manufacturing results in lower barriers to entry into the automotive market, offering access to capital-intensive assets and expertise. Its combination with contract engineering and possibly the use of white-branded electric skateboards enables new players to enter the market, which will provide more product diversity and greater competition. Sony and possibly even Apple will use this path to market.
The Software-Defined Vehicle: Enabling and Delivering its Benefits
February 2021
Pioneered by Tesla, the software-defined car is deeply transforming the automotive industry. It brings about a broad range of benefits such as improved user experience throughout a vehicle’s life, shorter development / deployment cycles and new revenue streams. But the industry must reorganize itself and make strategic make-or-buy decisions while accounting for the “intrusion" of software-native tech companies.
CES 2021: Notable Announcements Despite Going Digital
January 2021
Although digital, CES 2021 brought its share of interesting announcements. However, the serendipity associated with the usual format was sorely lacking, the random discovery of new products and services being very difficult. In the mobility / autotech space, key announcements mainly related to digital cockpit and in-cabin experience, electrification, and to a lesser extent autonomous driving. See analysis below.
OEMs Double Down as EVs Hit Tipping Point
December 2020
2020 will be remembered at the tipping point for EVs. Europe sees EV sales tripling to 8-10%, China is getting back on the growth path, and the USA is expected to reverse a negative trend. Triggered essentially by CO2 regulations, the momentum is fueled by more better and cheaper EVs launched by traditional and emerging OEMs, and increasing consumer appetite.
Concentration in AV Tech Accelerates
November 2020
OEMs have by and large given up on developing autonomous driving tech in-house, reshuffling their priorities. Now they rely massively on partnerships with tech companies. This has a significant impact on the startup ecosystem supporting this industry. But the issue for OEMs is bigger than autonomous driving: it is about software capabilities.
Going Full Electric: My e-Motorcycle Experience
October 2020
The electric vehicle market is hot, particularly in Europe, but motorcycle electrification is off to a slower start than EVs. Nevertheless, companies like Zero produce very convincing e-motorcycles for the pleasure they provide, their CO2 footprint and their cost of ownership. My personal experience going full electric on both 4 and 2 wheels has made the shift from gas to electrons irreversible.
Europe leaps ahead of China in EV Sales
September 2020
The crisis is reshuffling EV cards among the 3 majors markets. EV-focused incentives in Europe have a very significant positive impact on sales, whereas China and the USA are getting behind. This will benefit local OEMs’ mid-term competitiveness and the planet above all.
The Crisis Reshuffles the Deck in the AV Space
July 2020
The current crisis will impact the development and deployment of AVs on multiple fronts. Industry consolidation is unavoidable — and healthy — which will allow strong players to emerge. Goods transportation, from intercity to the last mile, will become the leading target in the mid-term, whereas more efforts will be placed on deploying ADAS / Level 2 solutions in the passenger vehicle space. AV-related startup founders will need a very convincing value proposition to raise their first money!
Urban Mobility’s Unique Chance to Help Fight Climate Change
June 2020
Covid-19 has profoundly impacted most aspects of our lives, including how and how much we move. As we deal with the crisis and prepare for a new normal, all stakeholders must take advantage of this unique opportunity to tackle global warming while we reboot mobility. In Europe, cities, countries and the EU are putting new policies in place to better align urban mobility with the Paris Accord.
(New) Future of Mobility: Likely Winners and Losers
May 2020
The Covid-19 crisis will deeply impact the mobility space as a result of drastic budget resizing and re-prioritizing, as well as behavior changes. Some segments will likely get a boost, while many others will suffer. We will see consolidation, company shutdowns and more collaboration as a way to deliver on critical projects with constrained budgets. This article provides an analysis of what is likely to happen in electrification, shared mobility and autonomous driving.
How will the Covid-19 Crisis impact the Electrification of Mobility?
April 2020
The coronavirus is causing a major health and economic crisis. It will also impact the way we consume mobility and possibly whether our next vehicle is electric. Confinement is raising awareness about clean air. Governments may launch EV-focused incentives to restart the auto industry. But EVs’ energy cost benefit has shrunk due to lower oil price. What net impact will the crisis have on EV sales?
The Future of Trucking
March 2020
Passenger vehicles grab most headlines when it comes to the mobility revolution. Nevertheless, trucking is undergoing a profound shift which, by and large, parallels that of personal vehicles. Whereas electrification will happen just as fast for urban logistics as for cars, it will take longer to gain traction for long distance trucking. Autonomous driving will likely emerge faster for specific trucking applications than for cars, leveraging the same overall technologies.
Electric Skateboards - A Faster Way to Bring EVs to Market
February 2020
Electrified rolling chassis, or “skateboards,” are designed around a unique architecture compared with their traditional siblings to address increasingly demanding CO2 standards. Whereas large OEMs can justify the development of such platforms (e.g. VW Group’s MEB), others cannot. New players are jumping on this opportunity to offer modular skateboards on which others can build a wide variety of vehicles to transport people and goods. Who are these players and what are they offering?
Mobility Trends at CES 2020
January 2020
What are the highlights from this year's CES on the mobility front: trends, presentations by OEMs and suppliers, and more! Whereas autonomous driving took a back seat this year, in-cabin experience along with digital cockpits were at the core of many corporate booths along with a few interesting concepts. There were also a few surprises!
The Profound Disruption of Last Mile Delivery
December 2019
The increasing pressure to eliminate vehicular emissions in urban areas combined with the fast rising volume of parcel deliveries and the emergence of autonomous driving technology are bringing about new delivery models and modes. They will be clean and eventually much cheaper. This profound transformation will enable new players to enter the delivery space.
Tesla Leads in Energy Efficiency by 10 to 30%
November 2019
Tesla has built a very significant lead in electric vehicle technology, thanks in part to their focus on EVs for the past 17 years and their deep vertical integration. As more incumbents are joining this fast growing segment, the gap is clear. New battery EVs launched by incumbent OEMs are 10 to 30% behind Tesla in terms of overall energy efficiency as measured in kWh/100km/ton or mi/kWh*ton.
Why Amazon Is Investing Massively in Mobility Tech
October 2019
Amazon shipped about 6 billions parcels last year. They are increasingly bringing their delivery business in-house to realize the two hour delivery promise, and possibly achieve better economics as volumes increase. But the e-commerce giant must also steer towards the electrification and autonomy of their fleet, as well as the development of new delivery modes. This is why Amazon has recently invested hundreds of millions of dollars in tech and startups.
New Products Accelerate EV Sales Growth
September 2019
Plug-in EV sales continued to grow at a significant pace in the first semester when the overall light vehicle market dropped in key regions. There is no doubt the accelerated introduction of new EVs will boost this growth, as we have observed recently with the Tesla Model 3. Among the latest of a slew of new products is the Volkswagen ID.3, presented this month at the Frankfurt IAA. The Golf-sized sedan is likely going to have a significant impact on market development. To what extent do governmental initiatives and the fast increasing EV product range across various market segments drive the growth of plug-in EV sales?
Wave of Concentration in the Autonomous Driving Space
July 2019
Google (now Waymo) has been betting big on AV tech for many years. Starting around 2015, this has triggered a wave of initiatives and investments, both at incumbents and in startups. Now that the AV hype has peaked, a wave of concentration is bringing about unexpected partnerships between OEMs, Tier 1s and tech-native companies. These concentration hubs represent billions in investment and still have years of work ahead of them. What is actually happening and why?
Will the Future of Mobility be Sustainable?
June 2019
Most current mobility solutions deplete our natural resources, damage our planet, create social inequities and some are financially unsatisfactory. The future of mobility must be sustainable. New solutions have to be designed with the clear objective to generate positive environmental, social and economic impacts on our communities. What can be done?
SoftBank: Building a Global Mobility Juggernaut
May 2019
SoftBank is leveraging its $100B Vision Fund to create a grand scheme for the future of mobility. The Japanese conglomerate, founded 40 years ago by visionary and (now) billionaire Masayoshi Son, started to invest in mobility in 2014. It has built significant momentum with massive positions in companies related to shared mobility, autonomous driving and supporting tech, e.g. over $11B in Didi and $8B in Uber. SoftBank is an active investor which leverages its significant stakes to steer portfolio companies towards an integrated web of global autonomous mobility solutions.
Rail: A Key Component of the Mobility Mix
April 2019
About 200 years after they were first introduced, rail lines have evolved to cover various use cases, i.e., urban or intercity settings, passenger or freight. Today, rail transportation represents a significant share of the modal mix in Europe, Japan and China, particularly as metros and high speed trains. Electric rail transportation is an integral part of the solution to address congestion and global warming, and must be part of long term mobility planning. Is it the case?
A Deep Dive into the AV Ecosystem
March 2019
Tremendous efforts are being undertaken to enable autonomous mobility, whether for people or for goods. These efforts are evidenced by the development of a broad and dense ecosystem. It is comprised of tech giants, startups and established OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers which develop the hardware or software solutions necessary to bring AVs to market. What are the key building blocks of this ecosystem? What are the dynamics of the various segments?
Utilities and Oil Majors Join the EV Wave
February 2019
In 2018, about 2.1 million plug-in electric vehicles (EVs) were sold. This may represent only 2.2% of all light vehicles sold globally last year, but it increased almost 80% vs. 2017. EV sales growth will remain strong thanks to both a wave of new EVs and continued incentives, whether financial or operational. This should be enough for all forward-thinking utilities and oil majors to prepare to break from the status quo. What is at stake? What actions are the key European and US players taking?
CES 2019: A Focus on Mobility
January 2019
At CES 2019, the key trends in the mobility space included autonomous shuttles, occupant understanding solutions, on-board services, an array of often AI-assisted UX/UI enhancement as well as the progressive deployment of AVs. This articles outlines some of the most interesting tech showcased in Las Vegas
How Nio, Byton, Lucid, Rivian and others Emulate Tesla
December 2018
Incumbent OEMs are efficient organizations, but they move incrementally. They are heavily challenged by Tesla and a number of more recent emerging electric vehicle OEMs, which have developed into agile, software powerhouses. They are free from multiple legacy issues that slow down incumbents, have access to mounds of capital and are allowed to lose lots of money. Who are they and how are they fairing?
Shared Micro-Mobility Goes Mainstream
November 2018
Consumers expect access to mobility when and where they want, without commitment, as they are decreasingly interested in car ownership. The fast development of the sharing economy is forcing traditional players, OEMs in particular, to truly embrace their proclaimed ambition to pivot from selling cars to providing mobility. Likewise, companies offering shared mobility based on a single mode are racing to deploy across other modes in order to gain a first mover advantage in new markets.
Plug-In Vehicles: The Future in Charging
October 2018
Sales of plug-in electric vehicles (pure EVs and plug-in hybrids) reached 1.1 million units in 2017 and are growing at about 50% year on year. They will represent 2.2% of global light vehicle sales this year, and create a fleet of 5.4 million plug-in EVs by end 2018. Charging this fast growing installed base requires a paradigm change. It’s being addressed through increased network density, higher charging speed as well as new, more convenient, charging options. This article sheds light on the market, network growth, new solutions and the players.
Mobility Revolution Triggers Corporate Restructuring in Auto Industry
September 2018
The on-going revolution in the mobility space translates in a significant dichotomy in the corporate world between business as usual and the construction of the industry’s future state. This is particularly visible with regards to R&D expenditures, the timing of future revenue, business and technical risks as well as business models and associated margins. As a result, several incumbent players have or are planning to engage in massive reorganizations. This article looks at the drivers and the facts behind these historic corporate transformations.
Driver & Passenger Understanding: The Next Frontier
July 2018
Few solutions have been developed so far to assess real time traffic risks around vehicles and even fewer to understand the behavior of people inside them. Safety, comfort and onboard e-commerce solutions can be enhanced by leveraging sensors, AI, onboard compute platforms and connectivity. Let’s look at the different value propositions and some of the enabling solutions.
Connected Services Are Revolutionizing the Mobility Experience
June 2018
Connected vehicles is one of the four megatrends driving the ongoing mobility revolution. Supported by various underlying technologies, connectivity enables a myriad of new value propositions ranging from safety and autonomous driving, to vehicle diagnostics and maintenance, to convenience services and entertainment. This article looks at some of the features we can expect from increasingly connected vehicles, and some of the companies behind them.
Autonomous Driving — The Current State of Play
May 2018
Autonomous driving remains a very hot topic in the mobility space. Startups and investors are increasingly focusing on the opportunities this game changing tech generates in the mobility ecosystem. Incumbent OEMs and suppliers as well as mobility operators continue to raise their game to keep up with the new players. Meanwhile, the legislative framework evolves so as to maximize benefits for society. And what about autonomous trucks? Here is an overview of the state of play.
Vertical Integration Among Carmakers and Mobility Services
April 2018
The progressive shift from individual car ownership to shared mobility is no longer challenged. As a consequence, incumbent OEMs engage in mobility services and new mobility players get involved in specifying / sourcing their vehicles. This results in deep corporate transformation and multiple strategic partnerships. The search for recurring revenue from mobility services as well as for lower operating costs will continue to drive both sides to some sort of loose, vertical integration.This article analyzes what is happening.
China Leverages Silicon Valley’s Mobility Ecosystem
March 2018
China is home to the largest automotive market. The on-going mobility revolution is a major opportunity for China to strengthen this leadership through the establishment of new players. the levers to do so include restraining market access and using large domestic financial resources to leverage foreign talents and acquire foreign assets. Silicon Valley is the main target for this effort. This article analyzes how this plays out.
Mobility Ecosystem: a Look Back at 2017
February 2018
The mobility ecosystem is undergoing a full blown revolution along 4 megatrends, i.e. electrification, driving autonomy, connectivity and shared mobility. In 2017, we saw a drastic transformation in all 4 dimensions. Significant investments, new roles between incumbents and incoming players, pilots for new tech or business models, etc. This article looks at the most significant events of last year.
Highlights from CES, Detroit Auto Show and AutomobiliD
January 2018
Automotive, and mobility in general, have become a focus point for tech giants and startups alike. Electrification, driving autonomy, connectivity and shared mobility were at the heart of this year’s CES more than ever, as well as at Detroit’s recently created mobility tech event, AutomobiliD. The Detroit Auto Show gave us an idea of how OEMs will pay for it. What are the key takeaways?
Commercial Vehicles go Electric, Autonomous, Connected and Shared
December 2017
Mobility is currently undergoing a profound transformation, specifically with electrification, driving autonomy, connectivity and sharing. Whereas passenger vehicles are the most commented applications, buses, heavy trucks and light commercial vehicles are also increasingly adopting these four megatrends. Here is how.
An Inside Look at Silicon Valley’s Mobility Ecosystem
November 2017
SV is home to a dynamic combination of education, research, real life evaluation of all sorts, development, partnerships and investment. Startups, large tech companies, industry incumbents, universities, incubators and VCs work together to imagine, develop, test, finance and scale new tech or business models for tomorrow’s mobility.
Why EVs Will Soon Proliferate: OEMs’ Plans, ICE Bans and Infrastructure
October 2017
The electrification of mobility is at an inflection point. Battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle sales are up about 50% vs 2016. The forthcoming proliferation of increasingly appealing EVs (6 battery EVs in 2012, 15 today, over 50 in 2022), new regulations that force the internal combustion engine out, the deployment of the charging infrastructure and the fast greening of electric generation create an ideal set of conditions for EV sales to boom.
Mobility Ecosystems - Current State of Play for 21 Key Players
September 2017
The automotive and mobility industries are undergoing a major transformation which impacts the way players operate. Deeply transformative megatrends, namely the emergence of electrified, autonomous and connected vehicles, along with Mobility as a Service (MaaS), are forcing incumbents to revisit their business model. This article reviews 21 ecosystems built by key players in order to create full technology and service stacks that will eventually allow them to take full advantage of the megatrends.
Will New Tech Lead to Sustainable Mobility?
July 2017
Mobility is undergoing a profound transformation with the deployment of electric and autonomous vehicles as well as new mobility solutions. To what extent does this make mobility more sustainable, ie more socially inclusive and protective of our planet?
Who Will Pioneer Autonomous Mobility on Demand (AMoD) and How?
June 2017
Carmakers, large tech companies and many startups are investing billions to develop autonomous driving, but the emergence of fully autonomous vehicles on all public roads is still many years away. Nevertheless, autonomous shuttles are undergoing multiple real life tests and will start commercial operations soon. How will this work? Who are the players behind?
How Key Success Factors Converge for Significant EV Sales Growth
May 2017
Early attempts to launch electric vehicles failed for at least three reasons: a very narrow product offering, limited performance combined with a high price, and a scare network of slow charging stations. These pain points are being progressively addressed and should be removed within the next 5 to 10 years, allowing for a sound and lasting development of the overall EV ecosystem. The article reviews how we are progressing on these three dimensions.
The Blurring Line between new Mobility Services and Public Transit
April 2017
The development of alternative mobility solutions, in particular ride-sharing, ride-hailing and car-sharing, continues to deeply transform the urban transportation landscape. The forthcoming emergence of driverless vehicles will further rattle the status quo. The line between new mobility solutions — mostly private — and public transit will become blurry. What do we observe today? What can we expect for tomorrow?
Autonomous Driving: the Current State of Play
March 2017
Autonomous driving represents the most important disruption in mobility since we moved away from horse-pulled carriages. What is the current state of play in autonomous driving? Who are the key players? What are some of key technical and regulatory challenges? In what settings are AVs likely to be deployed first?
Electric Mobility’s Ecosystem: Structure, Players and Trends
February 2017
Several major car manufacturers anticipate that up to 25% of their 2025 global sales will come from battery electric (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV), with many new models to be introduced between 2020 and 2025. The three key conditions for customers to massively switch to EVs are (1) the price of EV battery packs, (2) the time needed to “fill up” and (3) the density of the charging infrastructure. The removal of these roadblocks give way to the emergence of a new ecosystem. What are its components, its main players and success factors?
Cards Reshuffled in Mobility, but CES Showed Incumbents Fight Back
January 2017
Electric mobility, autonomous and connected vehicles and new mobility solutions are maturing quickly. Tech companies are eager to use these disrupting innovations to grab part of the mobility business. In addition, a drop in individual car ownership is clearly foreseeable. Consequently, traditional carmakers’ revenue and profits from selling and maintaining cars are being threatened. They are forced to redefine their business model and adapt at warp speed. How are tech companies moving in? What strategic options do carmakers have given their current positioning and resources? CES 2017 gave us some indications as to how the mobility deck of cards is being reshuffled.
How the New Types of Mobility Solutions Compare
December 2016
Car ownership, public transit and classical car rentals are increasingly challenged by alternative mobility solutions. They leverage the omnipresence of smartphones, the development of data analytics and affordable technologies and surf on the wave of the collaborative economy. They potentially result in a much higher utilization of vehicles. They should also contribute to the sustainability of the planet and generate economic benefit for both vehicle owners and customers. What are these new services? Who deploys them? ...
Car Manufacturers Pivot to Provide Clean Mobility Services
November 2016
The growth experienced by the U.S., European and Japanese markets since the low point of 2009 is mostly behind us. At the same time, new players are exerting increasing pressure on incumbents, introducing disrupting products and services that the latter are incapable to compete against in the short term. In addition, emission regulations are increasingly stringent. As a result, traditional OEMs are forced to radically and hastily transform themselved, pivoting from vehicle-focused to mobility-focused strategies. What is exactly taking place? ...
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2016 Paris Motor Show: Massive Shift towards EVs
October 2016
The world’s most attended motor show witnessed a significant shift in global OEMs’ strategy towards electrified and autonomous vehicles, i.e. EVs and AVs. The pressure applied by new players combined with increasingly stringent emission standards has forced OEMs to rethink their strategy. Where do they each stand? What did they present and announce in Paris? What will be the bigger impact of these strategic shifts on their business and ecosystem, e.g. on people, industrial assets or the service network? ...
New Players Are Revolutionizing the Mobility Sector
September 2016
Two new types of players are disrupting the mobility sector: service providers (ride-hailing, car sharing) and technology providers (autonomous driving, connectivity, ...). There are all increasingly interacting with the traditional players. Who became partners? Who has acquired whom? What will be the likely distribution of roles among them in the automotive space? Who will control the new, recurring cash flows from rides and own the high-value customer relationships? ...