Oil is being weaponized. We are currently experiencing the extent to which constrained oil supplies can cause severe damage to the global economy. This provides another reason — besides stopping global warming — why it is imperative that we wean ourselves from oil dependency. Focusing on transportation makes sense as moving people and goods consumes over 60 percent of oil products used in the world. The good news: we have mature solutions. We need to electrify the fleet now.

 

In the past, we have seen multiple military operations in the barely disguised name of securing oil supplies: Kuwait, Iraq, Venezuela, just to name a few. Our reliance on oil is causing unacceptable and avoidable pain on local populations and global stability. The ongoing war declared by the U.S. and Israel against Iran has triggered the biggest turmoil ever on the global oil market according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

 

 

Our Dependence on Oil Comes at a High Price

The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz takes about 20 percent of global oil trade offline. As a result, spot prices for Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil jumped from the $60-70 band where they had been over the past year to almost $120 on March 9. As I write these lines, prices have come down and climbed back up to $100, significantly above pre-war level.

 

After two weeks of war, this is already impacting the global economy. Our cost of living is affected by higher gas prices, as well as the progressive rise in the price of goods due to transportation costs. In the U.S., the national average price for “regular” gas is already up 25% vs. a month ago. The IEA just ordered a partial release of strategic oil reserves to reduce tension on oil prices —member countries are required to keep a stock equivalent to at least 90 days of net imports. If the war lasts, this situation will cause shortages, which will hinder our ability to travel and move goods.

 

This is just another reminder of the extent to which we are reliant on oil to operate. Europe, China, Japan, Korea, and most other nations have no alternative but to rely on oil producers to fuel their vehicles. Asia is particularly affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz given their oil tankers’ routes. Even the U.S., which has been the largest producersince 2018 and is a net exporter of oil, is impacted (see pricing earlier) as markets are globalized. 

 

Given that transportation represents close to two thirds of the global consumption of oil products, the shift from fossil fuel to electricity (or hydrogen) to power mobility is critical in order to reduce this strategic dependence. When promoting clean mobility, we tend to forget about this aspect, at least during periods of stable oil markets, as we focus on global warming and air quality. 

 

 

We Must Electrify the Fleet to Reduce Oil Dependency

As of the end of 2025, about four percent of the global fleet was fully electric and another 1.5 percent made of plug-hybrids according the IEA. These two categories then represented 78 million plug-in vehicles of which 20 million were added last year. In mid-2025, Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimated that plug-in vehicles will reach about 15 percent of the global fleet by 2030 and 40 percent by 2040. The increasing age of the European and U.S. fleets (close to 13 years on average) tends to lengthen this electrification process. 

 

Electrifying the fleet is not without its challenges in a world where geo-politics are vastly impacting supply chains across the globe. In the midterm, the mobility sector will see its dependence shift from oil-producing countries to China. Indeed, China dominates global markets for minerals, battery components and cells, as well as rare earths with market shares ranging from 60 to 95 percent. 

 

China has been working on this strategic issue for over 15 years. In 2009, the central government  began a pilot called "Ten Cities, Thousand Vehicles" to address both energy dependence and air quality. The program fostered the deployment of hybrid and electric vehicles, providing financial support and initially targeting public transportation fleets. Overtime, the government developed an overarching strategy spanning from extraction and minerals processing to R&D and manufacturing and has since stuck to it. 

 

The other major regions waited until much later to initiate comprehensive industrial policies. For instance, in 2022 the U.S. Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) which fosters the development of domestic battery manufacturing capacity. It also incentivizes domestic sourcing, requiring a rising percentage of minerals to be extracted or processed in the U.S. or “friendly” nations. Yet the current administration has reversed as many policies as they could that promoted electrification.

 

Similarly, in 2023 the European Commission adopted the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) aimed at securing the region’s supply of the critical materials that are necessary for the green and digital transition. It focuses on mining, processing, and recycling critical minerals. This initiative is supported by facilitated access to finance and accelerated permitting.

 

Electrifying the fleet is for a large part about ambitious and stable political will as China has demonstrated. Policies must address both supply and demand until the emerging technology is mature enough to sustain itself. Reversing course on such a long-term transformation, as currently experienced in the U.S., is self-destructive as efforts are stopped in their tracks and will be difficult to restart.

 

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The Oil Market Turmoil Will Naturally Increase Electrification 

One can only hope that the current turmoil will be short-lived. However, a lasting oil crisis would certainly boost the transition away from fossil fuel. Indeed, U.S.-based automotive site Edmunds experienced an early increase in interest in electrified vehicles. In the week of March 2, searches related to HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs represented 22.4% of all vehicle searches up from 20.7% the previous week, largely driven by BEV-related gains. This may be marginal but will only increase. 

 

For memory, the 1973 oil crisis resulted in a rapid consumer pivot away from gas-guzzling cars toward compact and subcompact ones. Today, there is a more drastic solution to address the issue: electric vehicles. This potential reversal comes at a time when GM, Stellantis, Ford, Honda have announced over 60 billion dollars in write-off due to cancelled EV-related investments, and many (in the U.S.) are putting money back into large V8-powered SUVs and pick-up trucks. Will they have to change their strategies again?