As I mark the milestone of my 100th article, it is both a celebration and a moment of reflection on the extraordinary transformation that has swept through the mobility space since I started Mobility Revolution, my monthly newsletter,in Sept. 2016. Since then, the sector has been profoundly upended by powerful technological, economic, and societal forces. In my previous 99 articles, I have shared my analysis of these various components and their impact on mobility at large. My reflections have been fueled in part by the multiple consulting and scouting projects I have realized for various carmakers, suppliers, and other corporates, as well my advisory and mentorship of many more mobility-related startups from around the globe. 

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This 100th edition of Mobility Revolution revisits the major themes explored in previous ones, analyzing the industry’s transformation since 2016. 

 

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Clean Mobility: Electrification and the Quest for Sustainability

The journey toward clean mobility has defined much of the past decade. Electrification has moved from niche to mainstream, with battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids gaining significant traction across global markets — although unevenly. Global plug-in vehicles (BEV and PHEV) sales grew from 0.9 million units in 2016 to over 17 million in 2024, including over 11 million BEVs. Growth remains driven by a combination of tightening emissions regulations, government incentives, and the introduction of more appealing EV models.

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China experienced a 30x growth in plug-in vehicle sales over the period, reaching 11 million last year — two thirds of today’s global volume. Europe and the U.S. experienced smaller growth rates to reach about 3.2 million and 1.5 million units in 2024. The trend over the period has been non-linear, essentially reflecting changes in public policy. Japan and Korea have remained largely remained on the sideline, featuring very low BEV penetration.

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Batteries have become a theme of strategic importance as EVs gained traction globally. China’s dominance in material mining and refining, as well as cell manufacturing has prompted urgent efforts in Europe and the U.S. to localize production and secure supply chains. This drive is not only about economic opportunity but also about safeguarding sovereignty in an era of rising geopolitical tensions. The global battery supply chain has become a focal point for policymakers and industry leaders alike, with onshoring of cell production and the development of independent supply chains now seen as strategic imperatives.

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The electrification trend has also sparked a rethinking of vehicle design — BEVs allow for more packaging flexibility and design simplicity — but they weigh more. Conversely, there is a growing call for lighter, smaller, and more affordable vehicles to make clean mobility truly sustainable and accessible. Indeed, affordability remains a challenge for EVs even though battery cost has dropped by a factor of three since 2016.

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Electrification is reshaping not just passenger cars but also commercial vehicles, bikes, and even air mobility. The progressive integration of EVs within the power grid — using vehicles as distributed energy resources thanks to V2G functionality — has opened new avenues for grid resilience and sustainability. A number of BEVs can already power homes or tools. 

 

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Assisted and Autonomous Driving: Progress, Setbacks, and Promising Future

The evolution from advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) to fully autonomous vehicles has been one of the most closely watched developments in the industry. ADAS features such as adaptive cruise control, lane-keeping, and automatic emergency braking have become increasingly widespread, delivering measurable improvements in road safety and driver convenience. The pursuit of fully autonomous vehicles, however, has been marked by both remarkable progress and significant setbacks, with tens of billions of dollars invested over the past 10 years.

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Back in 2016, Google’s Chauffeur project (now Waymo) had just demonstrated its Firefly, a fully autonomous purpose-built vehicle. That year, GM acquired then two-year-old Cruise for a reported $1 billion. One year later, Ford bought a controlling stake in one-year old Argo.ai by committing $1 billion — VW Group later became a joint owner of the startup. 

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The past ten years have witnessed a Darwinian evolution within the autonomous driving ecosystem. The number of companies initially boomed, attracted by the hype, then dropped to a few strong players. Some pivoted to less demanding use cases, others exited the market entirely. Whereas Cruise and Argo.ai have been shuttered after spending billions of dollars, Waymo is flourishing. China has seen the development of a handful of strong players such as Baidu’s Apollo, Pony.ai, and WeRide.

In Oct. 2020, Waymo was the first to a operate rider-only autonomous ride-hailing service for t

he general public. Today, robotaxis operate commercially in five cities in the US and about ten in China. Waymo and Baidu’s Apollo — the leaders in the U.S. and China — now achieve respectively about 250,000 and 100,000 paid rides per week. Nevertheless, widespread commercial deployment remains years out.

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Trucking has also become a promising use case for autonomous driving. However, no company currently operates commercially on freeways without someone in the cabin — either for technical or regulatory reasons. Aurora appears to be the closest player to achieve this. 

 

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Software, SDV, and AI: The Digital Transformation

Perhaps the most profound shift of the past decade has been the digital transformation of vehicles and mobility services. The rise of software-defined vehicles (SDVs) — a paradigm pioneered by Tesla — has redefined automotive design, engineering, and business models. Deep software integration now enables over-the-air updates, enhanced user experiences — mostly pioneered by Tesla — and promising recurring revenue streams from on-demand features.

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Traditional OEMs have faced difficult strategic decisions about whether to develop software in-house or rely on external partners. The industry is shifting from a hardware-centric to a software-centric mindset, with major implications for product development cycles, talent acquisition, supply chain, organizational structure, and culture. The emergence of ubiquitous connectivity has further enabled the growth of new software-based services and features, with OEMs expecting these businesses to generate tens of billions in recurring revenue at high margins. 

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Completely absent in 2016, Artificial Intelligence is becoming pervasive throughout the vehicle lifecycle. AI now assists with design, engineering, code writing, manufacturing, testing, compliance, as well as supply chain management, quality control, and back-office operations. On the customer-facing side, AI powers marketing and retail, virtual assistants, personalized experiences, as well as predictive maintenance, service, and claims management. However, the adoption of AI has is raising concerns about workforce displacement, underscoring the need for up-/re-skilling.

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Modal Shift: New Business Models

The convergence of electrification, autonomy, connectivity, and shared mobility has forced the entire automotive ecosystem to reorganize. Incumbents have had to forge new partnerships, embrace innovative business models, and revamp supply. Regulatory compliance and geopolitical tensions — recently around tariffs and access to critical resources — have added layers of complexity to global operations.

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One of the most significant shifts over the past ten years has been the move from vehicle ownership to usership. Mobility as a Service (MaaS) and shared mobility models such as ride-hailing, car-sharing, as well as shared bikes and scooters have gained traction. Uber operates about 200 million trips per week, 5x its 2016 performance.

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An exciting new dimension is emerging with advanced air mobility. Companies such as Joby and Archer are getting close to launching commercial operations with their electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircrafts after investing billions — partly from Toyota and Stellantis.

 

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New Carmakers and the Rise of Chinese OEMs

The past decade has witnessed the dramatic rise of new carmakers, with major Chinese OEMs leading the charge most recently. Companies like BYD, Geely, and SAIC have rapidly expanded beyond their domestic market, leveraging government support, cost advantages, and robust supply chains to challenge established global players. 

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BYD, for example, has grown from selling 430,000 vehicles in 2014 to 4.3 million in 2024, becoming the world’s leading BEV manufacturer with 1.8 million BEVs. Geely has built a global empire with Chinese and European brands, an SDV-focused supplier, and strategic partnerships (Mercedes and Renault). Xiaomi, a leading producer of smart phones and consumer electronics, succeed where Apple failed; the company expects to sell 350,000 vehicles in 2025 up from none in 2023.

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Chinese automakers have not only gained the leading share of their domestic market at the expense of foreign OEMs, but are also making significant inroads in Europe, S.E. Asia, and L. America. With excess production capacity, they have focused on exports, positioning themselves as formidable contenders in the global automotive landscape with 5.9 million vehicles exported in 2024 vs. 700,000 in 2016. Their success is underpinned by world-leading battery supply chains, strong digital capabilities, and a willingness to innovate at lightning speed. Incumbent OEMs are now racing to catch up with China’s world-leading product development cycles.

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Inspired by Tesla’s success, a new generation of startups has introduced innovative BEVs although it has been challenging. In the U.S., Rivian and Lucid continue to extend their product range, assisted by strong financial backing — Volkswagen is paying billions of dollars to have access to Rivian’s SDV technology. But Fisker and a few others failed. Tesla itself has set a benchmark for operational and financial performance, accelerating from 76,000 vehicles sold in 2016 (Models S and X) to 1.8 million in 2024. It has prompt incumbents to accelerate their own transformation efforts, although the former BEV leader has been losing its edge lately.

 

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Looking Forward

Reflecting on the first 99 articles, it is clear the mobility space has undergone an era of unprecedented change. The various trends highlighted here have fundamentally reshaped the landscape. As we look ahead, the pace of innovation and disruption will remain intense, leading to more consolidation and partnerships across the industry. The lessons and insights from the past decade will be very relevant as the industry continues to evolve, adapt, and redefine the future of mobility, leading to a brighter future.